Hot Takes
Policy Briefs
The Arctic, a Geographical Region Beset by Geopolitical Tensions with Russia
Geopolitical tensions linked to the Arctic have developed as a result of Russia's hostile attitude in the region. The war in Ukraine…
Policy Reports
Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum? Armenia and Azerbaijan in Search of Regional Stability After the Nagorno-Karabakh War
In the autumn of 2023, Azerbaijan's armed forces completed their reconquest of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, until then controlled by the self-proclaimed…
Hot Takes
China’s Best Friend in the West? The Rising Threat of Chinese Involvement with New Zealand’s Quantum Research
- Bailee Dobson
- September 9, 2024
The development of quantum technology is at the forefront of international security concerns. Unsurprisingly, with quantum computers expected to break current cryptographic…
Hot Takes
Israel/Hamas: Strategic Surprise and the October 7th Attack
- Antonin Blanchard
- September 6, 2024
“... surprise therefore becomes the means of acquiring superiority... When it succeeds, it sows confusion and breaks the enemy's courage” - Carl…
Policy Briefs
Is Canada’s Donation of 900 Drones to Ukraine an Appropriate Response to Needs on the Ground?
- Camille Laty
- August 29, 2024
On February 19, the Department of National Defence issued a press release announcing a donation of more than 800 drones to Ukraine.…
Hot Takes
Building a safer North: Climate security risks, gaps, and opportunities of the Canadian Arctic
- Pauline Baudu
- July 26, 2024
“What happens in the North impacts the world, and when you look at security issues and climate change, the world is paying…
Hot Takes
Don’t Count on Us: Canada’s Military Unreadiness
- Philippe Lagassé, Justin Massie
- May 30, 2024
[This piece was originally published by War on the Rocks and is accessible in full here.] Canada’s military is in a “death…
Hot Takes
Back to the Basics of the “Shadow War”: 6 Months of Escalation Between Iran and Israel and the Aftermath
- Pierre Pahlavi
- May 6, 2024
Following the recent clashes between Iran and Israel, and with the situation tending towards a return to calm, it is time for…
Hot Takes
Towards Russian Recognition of the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”?
- Eliott Le Gall
- April 5, 2024
Cyprus, a divided island "Peace is not the absence of war, it is a virtue, a state of mind, a will to…
Hot Takes
Donald Trump and the Coming Disintegration of the West
- Kim Richard Nossal
- April 5, 2024
In many respects, Donald Trump’s 100-minute rally held in Conway, South Carolina, on February 10, 2024, was just like his previous rallies.…
Books
Indo-Pacific: A Strategic Region
- April 5, 2024
Get the book Indo-Pacific: A Strategic Region, the seventh volume of the new Rubicon collection! Please note that this book is available in…
Hot Takes
What Strategy for the West in Ukraine? Renunciation after Default
- Olivier Sueur
- February 29, 2024
One year ago, Le Rubicon honoured me by publishing an article entitled “Ukraine-Russie : une guerre de 20 ans” (Ukraine-Russia: a 20-year war),…
Hot Takes
The “Ins and Outs” of the Rapprochement Between Iran and Sudan
- Pierre Pahlavi
- February 29, 2024
In early February 2024, Sudan's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Al Sadiq, traveled to Tehran to meet his counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Iranian…
Hot Takes
With Waning Media Attention, External Monitor Keeps Focus on Military Culture Change
- Marie-Pier Allard-Caron, Cindy Cruz, Stéfanie von Hlatky
- February 29, 2024
In the wake of the 2021 sexual harassment and assault crisis involving allegations against high-ranking officers, including two Chiefs of the Defence…
Hot Takes
Ensuring the European Union’s Economic Security: a Revolution in the European Model
- Olivier Sueur
- February 8, 2024
After thirty years of quite peaceful coexistence between the economic and geopolitical spheres (1990-2020), the former is being overtaken by the latter…
Hot Takes
Does France really have a problem with the concept of Integrated Deterrence?
- David Pappalardo
- January 30, 2024
The concept of “integrated deterrence” is central to the US National Defense Strategy published by the Biden administration at the end of…
Hot Takes
Hamas attack on Israel: What’s in it for Iran?
- Pierre Pahlavi
- November 16, 2023
Hours after the spectacular raid carried out by Hamas by crossing the Israeli border on Saturday, October 7th, the attention of many…
Hot Takes
Beyond the Approval of Finland and Sweden joining NATO: making sense of Turkey’s unstable approach towards the alliance
- Tetede Babatunde François Akilatan
- November 9, 2023
In the wake of Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden announced in May 2022 their intention to join NATO. These historic…
Hot Takes
The Risks of Ambiguity: Taiwanese Public Opinion, US Credibility, and Effective Deterrence
- James Lee, Ja Ian Chong, Hsin-Hsin Pan, Chien-Huei Wu and Wen-Chin Wu
- November 6, 2023
The United States’ policy toward Taiwan has been a source of continuing controversy. Amid warnings that Beijing may be preparing to use…
Policy Briefs
Military Support for Ukraine – A Necessary Coherence Around Three Dimensions: Discourse, Material Donations, and Industrial Production
- Rachel Sarfati
- October 25, 2023
Western opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undeniably had consequences for interstate diplomatic, military and economic dynamics. Among them is the…
Policy Briefs
The Arctic Continental Shelf and Canada: What Political Risks?
- Mathieu Landriault
- October 17, 2023
The allocation of the continental shelf in the Arctic region has generated significant speculation. Some, particularly in the media, portray this issue…
Hot Takes
Fear of missing out: Meloni’s moderation for the stability of the international scenario.
- Gianmarco Fontana
- October 3, 2023
The latest Italian elections, held in September 2022, represent a turning point for both the country and the international community. According to…
Hot Takes
One year after the Iranian veil uprising: assessment and state of affairs
- Pierre Pahlavi
- September 29, 2023
September 16, 2022 - Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman arrested in Tehran because her veil was poorly adjusted, was taken to…
Hot Takes
The Women, Peace and Security Agenda at NATO in Light of the War in Ukraine
- Stéfanie von Hlatky
- September 4, 2023
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) finally updated its Strategic Concept in 2022, a few months after Russia invaded Ukraine. Although this…
Hot Takes
The Russian Navy and the Arctic: A New Reality, Old Challenges
- Igor Delanoë
- August 23, 2023
While the Baltic Sea is becoming a “NATO lake” with Finland’s entry into NATO and Sweden’s upcoming integration, the Alliance seeks to…
Hot Takes
Lethal Autonomous Weapons: Between Myths and Confusion
- Léa Pérémarty
- July 26, 2023
In May 2023, press reports stated that an artificial intelligence (AI)-controlled drone had killed its own instructor during a test conducted by…
Books
Security Challenges in Africa
- July 12, 2023
Get the book Security Challenges in Africa, the sixth volume of the new Rubicon collection! Please note that this book is available in…
Policy Reports
What lessons can be drawn from the “Second Russo-Ukrainian war”?
- Satcha de Henning Michaëlis, Laurent Borzillo
- July 12, 2023
This strategic note examines the initial lessons that can be drawn from the war in Ukraine. It is primarily based on two…
Hot Takes
Chad’s Unlikely Transition
- Alexandra Lamarche
- May 10, 2023
Last year’s peace talks between Chadian authorities armed groups and the National Dialogue may have appeared to usher in a new dawn…
Hot Takes
The Proliferation of Militarized Civilian Drones in Ukraine: a Lesson from the War for Western Military Staffs
- Tancrède Jankowski
- May 1, 2023
The media scene hastily portrayed the Bayraktar TB-2 drone as "Kyiv's aerial asset" to fight incursions by the Russian invader, overestimating its…
Reports
Consequences of the war in Ukraine in the Arctic
- Frédéric Lasserre and Hervé Baudu
- April 13, 2023
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Arctic region has been the focus of many economic sanctions by Western countries,…
Policy Briefs
Tail Risks for 2024: Prospects for a Violent Constitutional Crisis in the United States
- Theodore McLauchlin
- April 12, 2023
Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election, culminating in the January 6th, 2021 uprising, have left grave questions…
Hot Takes
MINUSMA “à la carte” or Geopolitical End Game in Mali
- Arthur Boutellis
- March 27, 2023
Ten years after establishing the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), the future of the mission and its 15,000…
Policy Briefs
What Multilateral Strategy for Canada in the Arctic?
- Satcha de Henning Michaëlis
- March 25, 2023
Russia’s warmongering and revisionist behaviour in Ukraine raises questions about its position in the Arctic, given the region’s strategic importance for Russia.…
Books
Ukraine, one year later: first lessons and perspectives
- March 23, 2023
Get the book Ukraine, one year later: first lessons and perspectives, the fifth volume of the new Rubicon collection! Please note that…
Hot Takes
Russia’s ‘Low-Tech’ War on Ukraine Discredited Its Military Modernization Narrative
- Anna Nadibaidze
- March 3, 2023
On 29 January 2023, Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of Russian space agency and now head of the “Tsar’s Wolves” group of…
Hot Takes
Targeting Ayman Al-Zawahiri: A Just Elimination or Just an Elimination?
- Marie Robin
- February 27, 2023
On August 1st, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the elimination of the leader of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, on the…
Hot Takes
Who will be NATO’s next secretary general?
- Laurent Borzillo
- February 22, 2023
February 2023: Nearly twelve months after Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and while Kyiv’s allies continue, for some, quibble over the type…
Hot Takes
Strategic Blackmail And Great Power Competition: Why Did The Philippines And Turkey Threaten To Break Up With The West?
- Jonathan Paquin
- February 10, 2023
In the face of Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the South and East China Seas and Moscow’s in Eastern Europe, balance of threat…
Policy Reports
Geopolitical Upheaval In The Post-Soviet Space: The “Near Abroad” Tested By The War In Ukraine
- Tancrède Jankowskiand Armel Bouvery
- February 3, 2023
After the multiplication of military setbacks Russia suffered in the face of the Ukrainian armed forces’ counter-offensive, it is fashionable to say…
Policy Reports
Turkey’s And Iran’s Drone Supply In The War In Ukraine
- Satcha de Henning Michaëlis
- January 26, 2023
Turkey’s and Iran’s military supply to the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces has been evidenced by the presence of TB2, Mohajer, and…
Hot Takes
Finally: Canada buys the F-35
- Srdjan Vucetic
- January 20, 2023
Canada's Minister of National Defence, Anita Anand, announced that Canada would acquire a new fleet of 88 F-35 fighter jets. The cost…
Policy Briefs
The “Freeland Doctrine” and Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: Between isolation and confusion
- Zachary Paikin
- January 2, 2023
For a country that has not undertaken a comprehensive foreign policy review in nearly two decades, Canada has been fortunate to have…
Books
France’s strategic challenges
- December 21, 2022
Get the book France's strategic challenges, the fourth volume of the new Rubicon collection! Please note that this book is available in…
Policy Reports
New Hypersonic Weapons: Same but Different
- Dominika Kunertova
- December 3, 2022
Hypersonic weapons can increase pre-emption fears and dangerously alter crisis escalation scenarios by the 2030s. This popular argument builds on the expectations…
Hot Takes
The Taiwan Problem to the U.S.-South Korean Alliance
- Hyon Joo Yoo
- November 25, 2022
While tensions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States have intensified over Taiwan for the past several months,…
Hot Takes
What Peace for Ukraine? Understanding the Causes of the War to End It
- Justin Massie
- November 17, 2022
The prospects for peace in Ukraine are currently the subject of vigorous discussion. Three main positions structure the debate. On the one…
Policy Briefs
Canada’s Potential for Leadership in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine
- Anvesh Jain
- November 3, 2022
Introduction Charles Tilly’s pithy maxim that “war made the state, and the state made war,” succinctly describes the effects of wartime constraints…
Books
The European and Transatlantic Awakening
- October 24, 2022
Get the book The European and Transatlantic Awakening, the third volume of the new Rubicon collection! Please note that this book is…
Reports
Design over default
As part of the development of this annual colloquium in September 2022, the NSA held a series of consultations earlier this summer…
Policy Briefs
Combatting the Seen and Unseen Threats of China’s Digital Silk Road
- Michelle Marcus
- September 15, 2022
Overview The 48th G7 summit marked a recommitment by G7 countries to develop approaches for challenging China’s increasing geopolitical dominance and cybersecurity…
Hot Takes
Taiwan: Invasion is not likely, but deterrence remains vital
- Charles Parton
- September 6, 2022
This paper is a written version of a contribution made on 2nd June 2022 at a conference ‘Is War over Taiwan Coming?’…
Policy Briefs
Taiwan and the “New Cold War”
This paper is a written version of a contribution made on 2nd June 2022 at a conference ‘Is War over Taiwan Coming?’…
Policy Briefs
Defending a Country that Doesn’t Exist with a Military that Isn’t Allowed: Japan-Taiwan Relations and Potential Defense Role
Is war over Taiwan coming? Yes, possibly within five years. Recent statements by U.S. President Biden have reinforced an implicit U.S. security…
Policy Briefs
Economic Sanctions against a Global Superpower: Adequate for Deterrence and Punishment?
- Michelle Marcus
- July 8, 2022
Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine marked a clear violation of international law. Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s statehood, but Russia’s war of aggression…
Policy Briefs
Arctic Multilateralism and the Consequences of the Ukrainian Conflict
- Pauline Pic
- July 8, 2022
On February 23, 2022, the Kirkenes Conference opened, a conference held annually in northern Norway since 2002. The forum has gradually gained…
Hot Takes
Democratic Resilience in the Face of the Authoritarian Groundswell
- Tancrède Jankowski
- July 7, 2022
The prophecy for the end of history and the inevitable triumph of the democratic model is now facing a significant challenge, as…
Policy Reports
Is War Over Taiwan Coming?
- Rémy Carugati
- June 21, 2022
Is war over Taiwan coming? If yes, how would it take place? These questions are among the most salient debates in the…
Hot Takes
“Russia Must Not Be Humiliated.” The Formula and its Political-Strategic Implications
- Olivier Schmitt
- June 16, 2022
In a June interview with La Dépêche du Midi, President Emmanuel Macron said: "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day…
Hot Takes
Questioning the Form of State Support to Rebel Organizations in Civil Wars
- Arthur Stein
- June 16, 2022
A question has been raised since the beginning of the fighting in Ukraine on February 24, 2022: if the government were to…
Books
The New Forms of War
- June 16, 2022
Get the book The New Forms of War, the second volume of the new Rubicon collection! Please note that this book is…
Hot Takes
Macron’s Bad History is Counterproductive
- Alexander Lanoszka
- June 14, 2022
In an interview made to all the French regional daily press, French President Emmanuel Macron asserted that "[We] must not humiliate Russia…
Hot Takes
What Is the Future for French Intervention in the Sahel?
- Tancrède Jankowski
- June 13, 2022
Is the conflict in the Sahel on its way to becoming yet another failure in the total war on terror? After months…
Hot Takes
Canada’s Military Awakening Is Not for Tomorrow
- Justin Massie
- June 8, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent such a shock wave through Western capitals that it led to a military surge. This is…
Policy Briefs
Taiwan Facing the Loss of Diplomatic Allies
- Maxandre Fortier
- June 6, 2022
The war currently raging in Ukraine has led to fears that a similar conflict could erupt in the Taiwan Strait. Tensions between…
Hot Takes
Russia Misses its Exit
- Frédéric Mérand
- May 27, 2022
When an empire bids farewell, it can do so with a certain elegance, or by leaving chaos and desolation on its trail.…
Hot Takes
Russia in the Sahel: Towards a Worsening of Security and Political Situations
- Michael Shurkin
- May 26, 2022
It is now undeniable that Russia has become an influential and dangerous actor in the Sahel, which may be deliberately exacerbating the…
Hot Takes
The Info War in Ukraine
- Tancrède Jankowski
- May 23, 2022
Constructed as a heroic pilot, the ability of the Ghost of Kiev to make the Russian air force falter won over the…
Compendium
Managing Traditional and New Threats through International Cooperation
- Stéfanie von Hlatky, Justin Massie
- May 17, 2022
Following its second annual colloquium, the Network for Strategic Analysis has produced the compendium "What's Next? Managing Traditional and New Threats through…
Policy Reports
The Sino-Russian Partnership and the Bipolarization of the World
- Rémy Carugati
- May 12, 2022
This policy report argues that the current war in Ukraine is unlikely to break the Chinese-Russian unlimited partnership and will accelerate the…
Policy Briefs
India’s Place in the Quad in Light of AUKUS
- Amélie Chalivet
- April 29, 2022
Context The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is a cooperative group, comprised of India, Japan, Australia and the United States, that was first…
Books
Ukraine: The Shock of War
- April 26, 2022
Get the book Ukraine: Le choc de la guerre, the first volume of the new Rubicon collection! Please note that this book…
Policy Reports
The Resurrection of Lazarus, or the Second Youth of NATO: The Consequences of the Russian Invasion on NATO
- Laurent Borzillo
- April 20, 2022
On February 24, 2022, when most experts believed that a significant but limited Russian attack on Eastern Ukraine was likely – at…
Hot Takes
How to Assess the Russian Military Threat on the Canadian Territory?
- Frédéric Lasserre
- April 4, 2022
The idea that Canadian territory could be attacked by a Russian air, ballistic or naval attack is not new. Scientific or media…
Policy Reports
New Technologies, Climate Change and War in Ukraine: What Impacts on NORAD Modernization?
- Camille Raymond
- March 21, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought the important modernization of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) back on the agenda…
Hot Takes
Ukraine and Taiwan: Not the Same Fight
- Rémy Carugati
- March 14, 2022
As the war is raging in Ukraine, shock waves reverberate in East Asia, where many in Taiwan fear they could be next.…
Policy Reports
Towards a Canadian Strategy in the Indo-Pacific: What to Learn From the American and European Examples?
- Maxandre Fortier, Marco Munier, Justin Massie
- February 25, 2022
All indicates that the Trudeau government will soon publish its strategy for the Indo-Pacific. Very little has been leaked from the document…
Hot Takes
The Ukrainian Crisis: What Kind of Transatlantic Unity?
- Rémy Carugati, Tancrède Jankowski, Justin Massie
- February 17, 2022
While Russia and the United States are in high tension over the imminence of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the prevention of…
Policy Briefs
The Space Occupied by International Law in the Dynamics of Sino-American Competition
- Louis-Benoit Lafontaine
- February 4, 2022
Law proves to be omnipresent in international relations today, notably acting as a regulator of interstate activities or as a vector of…
Hot Takes
Ukraine: Why NATO Must Make Concessions
- Rémy Carugati
- January 24, 2022
Russia has been massing troops near Ukraine’s borders for months. Over 100,000 Russian troops have been reported lately, including ballistic missile systems…
Hot Takes
Back to the Future? The Creation of a Foreign Human Intelligence Service in Canada
- Marco Munier
- January 17, 2022
The question of whether Canada should have a foreign human intelligence service, along the lines of the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)…
Policy Reports
Canada’s Role in the New Nuclear Landscape
- Louis-Benoit Lafontaine, Émile Lambert-Deslandes
- December 15, 2021
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference is scheduled for January 2022. Since its ratification in 1968 and the end of the…
Hot Takes
International Aid in the Face of the Afghan Humanitarian Crisis
- Rhita Ronda
- December 7, 2021
In 2001, the signing of the Bonn Agreement marked the beginning of a major Western investment in the cultural, economic and political…
Hot Takes
Trouble in Paradise? Germany’s Incoming “Traffic Light” Coalition and its Potential Impacts on NATO’s Security
- Émile Lambert-Deslandes
- December 2, 2021
After being ruled by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its junior coalition partners since 2005, Germany is set for Vice-Chancellor…
Hot Takes
After the AUKUS Crisis, Are France-U.S. Relations Back on Track?
- Pierre Morcos
- November 30, 2021
Pierre Morcos, "After the AUKUS Crisis, Are France-U.S. Relations Back on Track?," Commentary, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 16, 2021.
Policy Briefs
Naming and Shaming and Its Consequences on Civil Conflicts
- Jacob Fortier
- November 1, 2021
When acts of violence against civilians are widely publicized, Canada is frequently rushed to join its allies in public denunciation campaigns aimed…
Hot Takes
From the South China Sea to the Arctic: Linking Canada’s Interests
- Rémy Carugati
- October 25, 2021
The South China Sea (SCS) disputes are among the world’s most sensible and complex geopolitical questions. Three reasons render such disputes particularly…
Hot Takes
The Taliban and the Uyghur Dilemma: Where to Stand?
- Louis-Benoit Lafontaine
- October 20, 2021
While the 20th anniversary of September 11 terrorist attack is a reminder of the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan and the beginning of…
Policy Briefs
The American Strategic Pivot in the Indo-Pacific
- Jeanne Milot-Poulin, Rachel Sarfati, Jonathan Paquin
- October 19, 2021
Highlights The U.S. pivot to Asia strategy, launched by the Obama administration in 2011, comes in response to the significant structural change…
New Projects
Ad Hoc Crisis Response and International Organisations (ADHOCISM)
- Yf Reykers, John Karlsrud
- October 14, 2021
International organisations (IOs) are created with the aim of solving collective action problems when a crisis arises. Yet, member states have repeatedly…
Policy Briefs
The Renewal of the U.S. Strategic Planning
- Marco Munier
- October 12, 2021
Without turning away from counterterrorism, U.S. defense seems to be increasingly orienting its focus on China in an era of great power…
Hot Takes
Towards A European Rapid Reaction Force: Another Paper Tiger?
- Laurent Borzillo
- October 8, 2021
In its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, contrary to the Biden administration’s initial messages that claimed to make the Trump era an incident…
Policy Briefs
Continental Defence Modernization and the Future of Canadian Defence Policy
- Camille Raymond, Marco Munier
- September 29, 2021
On August 14, the Canadian Department of National Defense and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) issued a joint statement on the…
Policy Reports
Is Canada’s Foreign Policy Really Feminist?
- Yolande Bouka, Stéfanie von Hlatky, Stéphanie Martel, Sarah-Myriam Martin-Brûlé, Maria Martin de Almagro, Marie-Joëlle Zahar
- September 23, 2021
This policy report argues that, in order to deliver on its promise, the Government of Canada should carry out its Feminist Foreign…
Hot Takes
AUKUS: A New Anglosphere Partnership for the Development of Nuclear Submarine Capabilities
- Maxandre Fortier
- September 21, 2021
A new joint defence partnership will see the United States, Britain and Australia join together into what is already called AUKUS (Australia-UK-US).…
Hot Takes
Foreign Policy and the 44th General Election in Canada
- Justin Massie, Stéphanie Chouinard, Louis-Benoit Lafontaine
- September 17, 2021
“Canada’s foreign policy is more important now than it has been in a generation,” states the Conservative Party of Canada’s election platform.…
Hot Takes
The West’s Afghan Refugee Failure: A Symptom of Risk-Transfer War
- Theodore McLauchlin
- August 20, 2021
With Kabul fallen, Canada, the United States and their allies are now attempting to salvage what dignity they can from an utter…
Hot Takes
NATO’s Pivot to China: A Challenging Path
- Pierre Morcos
- June 23, 2021
Pierre Morcos, "NATO’s Pivot to China: A Challenging Path," Commentary, Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 8, 2021.
Hot Takes
Local Aid Workers: The Often-Overlooked Pieces of the Humanitarian Puzzle
- Junru Bian
- June 18, 2021
Most humanitarian programmes commission aid consultants at various stages of their operationalization to evaluate the efficiency of relevant programme design and implementation.…